How to Trade Harmonic Patterns

Pattern Identification

Harmonic Patterns [ChartSchool]  https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:harmonic_patterns

Harmonic patterns can be a bit hard to spot with the naked eye, but, once a trader understands the pattern structure, they can be relatively easily spotted by Fibonacci tools. The primary harmonic patterns are 5-point (Gartley, Butterfly, Crab, Bat, Shark and Cypher) patterns. These patterns have embedded 3-point (ABC) or 4-point (ABCD) patterns. All the price swings between these points are interrelated and have harmonic ratios based on Fibonacci. Patterns are either forming or have completed “M”- or “W”-shaped structures or combinations of “M” and “W,” in the case of 3-drives. Harmonic patterns (5-point) have a critical origin (X) followed by an impulse wave (XA) followed by a corrective wave to form the “EYE” at (B) completing AB leg. Then followed by a trend wave (BC) and finally completed by a corrective leg (CD). The critical harmonic ratios between these legs determine whether a pattern is a retracement-based or extension-based pattern, as well as its name (Gartley, Butterfly, Crab, Bat, Shark, and Cypher). One of the significant points to remember is that all 5-point and 4-point harmonic patterns have embedded ABC (3-Point) patterns.

All 5-point harmonic patterns (Gartley, Butterfly, Crab, Bat, Shark, Cypher) have similar principles and structures. Though they differ in terms of their leg-length ratios and locations of key nodes (X, A, B, C, D), once you understand one pattern, it will be relatively easy to understand the others. It may help for traders to use an automated pattern recognition software to identify these patterns, rather than using the naked eye to find or force the patterns.

Example: The following chart shows an example of the Bullish Bat pattern with embedded the ABC Bearish pattern. The identification pivots and ratios are marked on the pattern; the pattern also shows the entry, stop and target levels.

Trade Identification

In harmonic pattern setups, a trade is identified when the first 3 legs are completed (in 5-point patterns). For example, in Gartley Bullish pattern, the XA, AB and BC legs are completed and it starts to form the CD leg, you would identify a potential trade may be in the works. Using the projections and retracements of the XA and BC legs, along with the Fibonacci ratios, we can build a price cluster to identify a potential Pattern Completion Zone (PCZ) and D point of the pattern.

Pattern Completion Zone (PCZ)

All harmonic patterns have defined Pattern Completion Zones (PCZ). These PCZs, which are also known as price clusters, are formed by the completed swing (legs) confluence of Fibonacci extensions, retracements and price projections. The patterns generally complete their CD leg in the PCZ, then reverse. Trades are anticipated in this zone and entered on price reversal action.

As an example, the Pattern Completion Zone (PCZ) for the Bullish Gartley pattern is constructed using the following Fibonacci extensions and projections:

0.78 XA

1.27 BC

1.62 BC

AB = CD

Below is an example of idealized Potential Completion Zone (PCZ) formation:

Below is an example of real-world Potential Completion Zone (PCZ) formation:

Market Context Conditions

Most technical traders use chart analysis with market context concepts to trade. Market context concept is described as how current price is reacting to certain levels (pivots, support and resistance, MAs), how indicators are performing relative to historic price conditions (like oversold, overbought) and where/how patterns are developing in the current timeframe or multiple timeframes, etc. Each trader develops his own market context to trade. One of the elegant ways to define market context is through a Fibonacci Grid structure. Fibonacci Grid consists of Fibonacci bands (showing price reaction, trends), pivot levels (to show historic Support/Resistance areas) and Market Structures (to show potential turning points). On any trading chart, Fibonacci Grid layout is plotted to understand how the current price is reacting to the Fibonacci bands and whether the price is exhausted, whether price is trading above/below the extreme bands and whether or not the price is reacting to the support and resistance levels defined by pivots.

The confluence of these levels in the Fibonacci Grid structure, along with emerging pattern structure (and pattern target/stop levels), helps a trader make a good decision. Pattern trading is very precise, as each pattern has specific rules to entry/stop and targets. When combined, harmonic pattern analysis and market context give a great edge to trade. Harmonic patterns can fail, but their failure levels are well-defined and that information is clearly known prior to the trade. Hence, Harmonic pattern trading has many more positives than other trading methods.

Other market context/confirmation conditions and indicators include Divergence, Multiple Timeframes, Fibonacci Bands, Andrew's Pitchfork Analysis, Moving Averages, Pivots, Channels, Trendlines, Volume and Volatility.

Example: The following example shows how Market Context is used with pattern analysis. This example shows AAPL (date: Feb. 07, 2014) forming a Bullish Crab pattern above 200-SMA and outside the Fibonacci Bands (A, C points) and a D point is formed near the lower Fibonacci Bands with Crab pattern. Also, notice the pattern traded below mid-Fibonacci band level and trading near lower Fibonacci band, signaling a potential exhaustion setup. After completing Bullish Crab setup, price traded above the EL to signal a Long entry to the setup. The overall trend of AAPL is also bullish, as price slope is positive above 200-SMA. On Feb. 07, 2014, a Long bullish trade is entered above 73.71 with a Stop below 70.50 (-3.21). Target levels are 77.7 to 79.7 for the Target Zone1, 85.3 -89.4 for Target Zone2.

The following chart (June 9, 2014) shows AAPL Bullish Crab pattern progression and completion of targets.

Trade Entries and Stops

Trading harmonic patterns with computed entry levels are this author's preference rather than trading them blindly at retracement levels or reversal zones advocated by harmonic trading pundits. Most harmonic traders anticipate the pattern to reverse and attempt to trade these patterns in the “reversal zone” and end up taking contrarian (counter trend) trades. To enter a trade, I prefer a confirmation of reversal price-action combined with a reversal trend change from the “reversal zones.”

Most harmonic pattern trade entries occur around “D” point within the reversal zone. It could be a Buy (in bullish patterns) or a Sell (in bearish patterns). Usually, “D” is identified by a confluence of projections, retracements, and extensions of prior swings (legs), universally called as “reversal zone.” In my view, when prices started to reach this zone, it is signaling an opportunity for potential trade, not a signal to trade yet. The entry criteria and pattern validity are determined by various other factors like current volatility, underlying trend, volume structure within the pattern and market internals etc. If the pattern is valid and the underlying trend and market internals agreeing with the harmonic pattern reversal, then Entry levels (EL) can be calculated using price-ranges, volatility or some combination. Stop is placed above/below the last significant pivot (in 5 and 4-Point patterns it is below D for the bullish pattern, above D for bearish patterns).

Target Zones

Target zones in harmonic patterns are computed based on the retracement, extensions or projections of impulse/corrective swings and Fibonacci ratios from the action point of the pattern structure. For example, in Gartley bullish pattern, the target zones are computed using the XA leg from the trade action point (D). The projections are computed using Fibonacci ratios like 62% or 78.6% of the XA leg and added to the action point (D). The extension ratios like 1., 1.27, 1.62, 2., 2.27 or 2.62 are computed for potential target levels. The primary target zones are computed from D, with 62%-78.6% of the XA leg as the first target zone and 127%-162% as the second target zone.

Target Zone1: (D + XA*0.62) to (D+XA*.786)

Target Zone2: (D + XA*1.27) to (D+XA*1.62)

It is important to note that potential target zones in harmonic patterns are computed from a probability standpoint, not with absolute certainty. Strong money and risk management rules and full working knowledge of the pattern are necessary for any pattern trading success.

Example: The following chart shows a Bullish Gartley Pattern with an entry level, stops and target zones. The target zones are projected using XA swing length and Fibonacci ratios from D. Target Zone 1 comprises the range of 62%-79%, while Target Zone 2 runs from 127% to 162%.